The back and forth from BP is beginning to wear on the public as the latest estimates of how much oil is leaking into the Gulf of Mexico waiver again. BP officials told reporters the “siphoning” effort was capturing 5,000 barrels a day, and now they say a little over 2,000. Now the company intends to make still another attempt to seal the well.
Forget about BP’s horrible PR. Forget their excuses, posturing, and obvious intent to distance themselves from this monumental oil spill. It the company could, obviously they would disavow any responsibility at all for the worst man made catastrophe in United States history. When all is said and done, Exxon Valdez will probably end up looking like BP CEO’s “drop in the ocean” compared to BP’s high risk deep well endeavor off American shores.
Adding 2 + 2
There is only one thing people need to know to put this story into perspective, to put British Petroleum into perspective, to bring big business as a whole into the light. Here it is, you have to be ready. BP, any oil company, deals in flow rates and pressures every day of the week, 24 hours a day, all year long. The worst engineer on any oil rig of theirs in the world could calculate how much oil is puking out of this well before morning coffee. You have to understand this.
The pipe leading to the surface from this well is reported at 19.5 inches in diameter. BP says it was damaged reducing its diameter, but wait a minute, we will address this in a moment. They further state a drill head is lodged in it further reducing its diameter. What BP does know is the “pressure” at which oil and gas are propelled from this well. Don’t be confused, oil rigs rely on this pressure to function.
Now, what happens to a given pressure from a vessel (the oil and gas pocket) when the diameter of an exit pipe is reduced? You see volume in this case is determined by pressure and diameter – or more precisely velocity. BP, NOAA, the United States Energy experts, NASA, and an 11th grade math student understand this. Let’s just do an internet quick calculation of BP’s problem here.
If you use this calculator, input what BP already knows (and rest assured they know everything about oil wells), a more reasonable estimate of this oil spill can be derived. At least a layman’s one (I bet it is not off 20 percent). Of course I do not have the exact numbers to plug in, but read on.
Using BP’s pipe diameter, reducing it from 19.5 inches to (arbitrary) 12.0 inches, I began to plug in some very low pressure figures. Establishing the pressure difference across the orifice (the one created between the dome of the well and the drill bits and crimps in the pipe) I set the pressure drop there at a measly 20 psi. Now, the fluid density (oil at 5,000 feet below the sea will be much higher) was set at 160 kg/m^3, and the flow coefficient at 0.7. The result of this very rough and liberal formula shows BP’s hole in the Earth chugging out about 176,914 barrels of oil per day. This is probably a little high, as we do not know the exact temperature and viscosity, etc.
In their permit to drill this well, it is interesting to note that the official registered “worst case flow” for an accident was 162,000 barrels per day. it seems my layman’s calculations are not far off in that scenario. The point here should be obvious. BP told everyone 1,000 barrels a day at the start. This was a gross lie. Then they estimated 5,000 barrels a day. This too was a lie. And now, your government needs a task force to figure out the flow? These people need a task force to plug a kitchen sink these days.
Task Force for Mathematics
If we reduce the diameter of the pipe coming out of the well (using the approximations) to a size that would equal BP’s first numbers, can you imagine how big the hole in the pipe would be? 1,000 barrels a day would be produced from a 2 inch pipe into the Gulf. Half a gallon of oil per second, time 60 seconds in a minute, times 60 minutes in an hour, times 24 hours, divided by 42 gallons per barrel (if this is their measure), equals 1028 barrels a day. A half gallon of milk per second (one-one-thousand) exiting a pipe one and one half feet in diameter, continuously? I think not, you do the math.
BP, and probably your government too, is relying on your hatred of mathematics. Even your powers of approximation, is something they are insulting. 1000, barrels a day. 10,000 barrels. BP’s original estimate is probably how much oil leaked from the rig when it was running, before it blew up. Just as a test, plug your bathtub and turn the faucet on half way. See if the water overflows into your floor after 24 hours. What do you think? Would BP lie to you?
No comments:
Post a Comment